Monday, April 15, 2019

Beginners Luck

Ever hear of beginners luck? I was in Las Vegas just a week ago and was thinking about the crowds wandering through the busy casinos. There is a belief among gamblers that beginners are nearly always lucky. If you look at the evidence, this statement is actually true, confirming that gamblers do, in fact, generally have lucky beginnings. But so do stock market speculators. So, does this mean that each of us should take up gambling, at least for awhile, to take advantage of this finding, then stop before our luck changes?

Definitely not. The evidence is an evidentiary illusion, at best. Among all beginning gamblers, some will be lucky and some will not, The casinos generally make sure more do not have beginners luck. It is the lucky ones, who feel that they have been specially selected by destiny, who generally continue gambling, while the unlucky beginners generally are discouraged at their initial losses and have no incentive to continue.

The lucky few will never forget their early success. The unlucky will no longer be a part of the surviving gamblers community and go on to find some other distraction in life. As gambling is more a matter of statistical chance than luck. the casinos still have no appeal for me.

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